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Painted in Red!

Date : 23/02/2009

Author:  M.R Raghu

 

Emerging Market Performance
    Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 YTD(Feb-09) $1 Invested in 2000 - Feb 09
Emerging Markets Returns                                
1 ARGENTINA 9 17 22 -27 30 -26 -22 -51 99 25 60 66 -5 -55 -17% 0.65
2 BRAZIL -21 38 23 -44 62 -14 -22 -34 103 30 50 41 75 -58 1% 1.87
3 CHILE -6 -16 2 -31 36 -17 -6 -22 80 25 18 26 21 -37 10% 1.71
4 CHINA -23 35 -26 -44 10 -32 -26 -16 81 -1 16 78 63 -52 -11% 1.09
5 COLOMBIA -28 7 38 -45 -19 -41 37 18 59 126 102 11 13 -28 -13% 5.46
6 CZECH REPUBLIC -21 29 -24 -1 4 1 -4 41 54 77 43 30 52 -45 -30% 4.04
7 EGYPT 11 46 25 -32 80 -46 -44 -5 81 119 154 15 55 -54 -25% 1.77
8 HUNGARY -19 104 93 -9 11 -28 -10 29 31 88 16 31 13 -62 -37% 0.83
9 INDIA -32 -4 10 -23 85 -23 -21 6 74 16 35 49 71 -65 -12% 1.38
10 INDONESIA 7 25 -75 -32 92 -63 -11 38 70 45 13 70 51 -58 -17% 1.14
11 ISRAEL 22 -4 23 -8 56 25 -32 -32 56 18 25 -7 36 -31 3% 1.20
13 KOREA -5 -38 -67 138 90 -50 46 7 33 20 54 11 30 -56 -22% 0.95
14 MALAYSIA 4 25 -69 -32 112 -17 2 -3 23 12 -2 33 42 -43 -4% 1.15
15 MEXICO -22 17 52 -34 79 -22 16 -15 30 45 45 39 9 -44 -24% 1.36
16 MOROCCO 19 33 33 22 -14 -24 -17 -13 43 18 9 63 44 -13 2% 2.10
18 PERU 22 -3 18 -42 16 -27 15 27 88 0 29 52 86 -42 -16% 3.54
19 PHILIPPINES -12 17 -63 13 2 -45 -20 -30 39 24 20 55 38 -54 -2% 0.61
20 POLAND -5 57 -24 -8 31 -5 -29 -1 33 59 21 35 23 -56 -40% 0.75
21 RUSSIA -28 151 112 -83 246 -30 53 14 70 4 69 54 23 -74 -12% 1.56
22 SOUTH AFRICA 17 -20 -11 -30 53 -20 -20 23 40 41 24 17 15 -40 -18% 1.27
23 TAIWAN -30 39 -7 -21 52 -45 9 -25 40 7 3 16 5 -49 -6% 0.40
24 THAILAND -6 -38 -74 11 47 -57 3 24 134 -4 5 7 41 -50 -9% 0.89
25 TURKEY -6 32 111 -54 244 -46 -34 -36 122 38 52 -9 70 -63 -20% 0.48
26 EM -7 4 -13 -28 64 -32 -5 -8 52 22 30 29 36 -54 -12% 1.02
27 WORLD F 19 12 14 23 23 -14 -18 -21 31 13 8 18 7 -42 -19% 0.53
28 S&P 500 COMPOSITE  34 20 31 27 20 -10 -13 -23 26 9 3 14 4 -38 -19% 0.50
GCC Market Returns                                
1 Saudi Arabia 7 12 28 -29 45 11 8 4 76 85 104 -53 41 -47 -9.47 2.66
2 UAE           -18 24 15 32 88 103 -40 34 -38 -0.87 2.87
3 Kuwait 39 40 39 -40 -9 -7 27 39 102 34 79 -15 25 -31 -15.85 4.86
4 Bahrain   17 49 -5 1 -18 -2 3 28 33 24 1 24 -21 -11.52 1.52
5 Qatar       35 -1 -8 37 37 70 65 70 -36 34 -27 -38.53 3.18
6 Oman 8 26 141 -52 10 -20 -24 26 42 24 44 14 62 -26 -11.37 2.36
  

What’s significant about 2008?

It’s the year that is completely painted in Red. The year 2008 is a perfect contrast to 2007 in terms of stock market performance. While in 2007 almost all markets (except Argentina) posted positive returns, 2008 was a total contrast with all markets posting negative returns. What is peculiar about 2008 is that it is the first year in recent memory where all the markets are painted in red. Even during 2000 when global stock markets reeled under intense bear grip, I could see two markets posting profits. But in 2008, there was no exception. All markets tanked and tanked severely. Russia took the honors for the top spot with a fall of 74% while Morocco was the best performing market with a fall of 13%. Emerging markets as a whole posted a fall of 54%, severest in its history. And the same can be said about S&P 500 (-38%) and MSCI World (-42%). Nearly 14 out of 22 emerging markets posted losses in excess of 50%.

Global Value Creators

Among global emerging markets, Colombia emerges on top. A $1 of investment in year 2000 would be worth nearly $5.46 as of end-Feb09 even after the blood bath of 2008! Following closely on heels would be Czech Republic with end investment value of $4. Surprisingly, Peru also finds a place in this honor list with a end value of $3.5.

Global Value Destroyers

Among global emerging markets, Taiwan takes the honor for the least spot. A $1 of investment in year 2000 would be worth only 40 cents while Turkey closely follows with an end value of 48 cents. S&P 500 (50 cents) and MSCI World (53 cents) would also have seen your value destroyed by half. In comparison, Emerging markets at least protected the initial investment.

 What about GCC?

In spite of huge losses posted for 2008, long-term wealth creation has been very strong for GCC markets. The top honor goes to Kuwait. A $1 invested in 2000 would be worth now $4.8 even after the 2008 and 2009 correction. And this makes it as the second best market (after Colombia) among all in the world! And Qatar is not far behind with a score of $3.2! And Bahrain grabs the attention as the least performing GCC market where a $1 invested in year 2000 is worth only $1.5 after 8 long years.

Happy Investing!

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