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Turkey Crisis: Impact on GCC

Date : 05/09/2018
Author:  Marmore MENA Intelligence



 

Turkey has been making headlines these past few weeks due to the massive rate at which the Turkish currency, Lira, has been depreciating against the dollar. The economy is under stress with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrading the growth forecasts from 7.1% in 2017 to 4.4% in 2018 and 4.0% in 2019. Inflation levels are reaching record highs to an annual rate of 15.9 percent in July with the Lira depreciating over 40% against the U.S dollar so far in 2018. The events unfolding in Turkey has an impact on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region through various channels in the form of bank exposures, bilateral investments, trade and tourism among others. It is important to take a closer look at how this event has impacted one of the closest ally and economic partner of Turkey.
 
Impact on GCC Banks
Multiple banks in the GCC region have exposures either directly or indirectly through their subsidiaries in Turkey. Amongst the GCC banks, Qatar National Bank (QNB), Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQ), Burgan Bank, Kuwait Financial House (KFH) and National Commercial Bank (NCB) have all seen a significant impact in their share prices on the back of the lira’s depreciation.

GCC banking exposure to Turkey

 
Source: Reuters, Data as of Aug 21

QNB owns Turkish lender Finansbank, the fifth-largest privately owned bank by assets in Turkey, which it bought for €2.7 billion 2016 from National Bank of Greece. About 15 per cent of QNB's assets and 13 per cent of its loans are linked to Turkey. CBQ, Qatar’s third largest bank by assets, owns Turkey’s Alternatifbank, has been deploying more capital and focus on its Turkey business in a bid to benefit from closer political ties between the two countries (Reuters). KFH, Kuwait’s second-biggest lender by assets has a sizeable business in Turkey with over 400 branches and has nearly 6,000 employees. Saudi Arabia’s National Commercial Bank (NCB) acquired a 67.03 percent stake in Turkiye Finansbank for $1.08 billion in 2007. Türkiye Finansbank has total assets of $5.6 billion.

As for the earnings impact, Turkish operations account for 19 per cent, 18 per cent and 14 per cent when it comes to KFH, Burgan Bank and QNB, respectively. It also contributes a sizable portion to CBQ and NCB amounting to 8 per cent for both the banks. KHF has the highest loan exposure to Turkey, nearly 30 per cent, followed by Burgan Bank, QNB and NCB with 20 per cent, 15 per cent and 12 per cent respectively. (Reuters, Shuaa capital)

Dubai’s biggest lender Emirates NBD agreed to buy Turkey’s Denizbank from Russia’s state-owned Sberbank for $3.2 billion with an aim to increase its outreach in the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey. The sharp fall in the Turkish lira since the announcement of the deal in May 2018, could trigger an adverse change in the clause creating the possibility for a renegotiation of the deal and a reduction of the acquisition price by as much as 25-30%. (Reuters)

Impact on Trade
Over the past decade, Turkey and the GCC states have actively pursued closer economic ties that has taken their trade volume from $4.8 billion in 2006 to around $16 billion in 2016, a more than threefold increase.

Turkey-GCC bilateral trade (in USD)
 
Source: Based on data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, November 2017

The Turkish crisis has not caused any major damages to the GCC region when it comes to trade. GCC imports and exports from Turkey account for just 2% and 1.4% of its overall trade volume respectively. Turkey too has a modest level of trade with the various GCC countries, with exports and imports of 7 per cent and 3 per cent respectively. However, Turkey is a key destination for non-oil exports for the GCC region where UAE was the 13th largest source of imports into Turkey last year.

The main exports for the GCC countries to Turkey include consumer goods, intermediate goods, fuels, precious metals, plastic, rubber and chemicals and the major imports are Consumer goods, Glass, Metals, Capital goods, Machinery, Electronics, Textiles and Clothing. (World Bank). Overall, we do not expect to see any major impact on the trading volume between the two regions due to the limited trading activity.

Turkey imports oil majorly from Iraq, Iran and Russia which together account for over 80%. Among GCC countries, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia oil exports accounted for 10% and 8.5% of Turkish oil imports, respectively.

Impact on Tourism
Turkey has been an attractive tourist destination for travelers from the GCC region due to its weather, presence of historic monuments and deep religious & cultural bonds. The number of tourist arrivals from the GCC region has increased by over 50% over the past 3 years in 2017 and the continued depreciation of Lira could encourage further tourists arrivals. On the other hand, the tourism industry of the GCC region would not be impacted, as people from Turkey do not constitute the main source of tourists.

Number of GCC citizens arriving in Turkey, 2001–2017

 
Source: Based on data from the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Culture and Tourism

Impact on Real Estate Investments
Gulf investors have been active in Turkey’s real estate market for a long time now. Acting as the gateway between Asia and Europe, Turkey has been successfully attracting Gulf nationals to its real estate sector. In 2012, Turkey changed the law to facilitate property investments by Gulf nationals, allowing them to buy properties by passports only and offering a one-year residency permit to foreign investors and their families. Other incentive introduced by the Turkish government includes the golden visa scheme. The government announced that it would grant citizenship to foreigners who buy property worth at least $1 million and invest a minimum of $2 million, or deposit at least $3 million in a bank account for more than three years.

Istanbul and Mediterranean coastal cities are popular with GCC investors due to their close links, both geographically and culturally. Over the past two years, GCC citizens have been among the most active participants in Turkey’s real estate market, with Saudis and Kuwaitis ranked 2nd and 3rd in houses sold to foreigners in Turkey in both 2016 and 2017. In fact, GCC citizens have purchased over one-fourth of all properties sold to foreigners in 2017. Kuwaiti foreign direct investments in Turkey are about $2 billion and the real estate sector accounts for 70 percent of the total. (OxGAPS Forum).

Number of houses sold in Turkey to GCC citizens

 
Source: Based on data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, November 2017

However, the continued depreciation of lira against U.S dollar has lowered the value of the investments. In 2018, Turkish Lira has lost approx. 40% of its value to USD implying that homes purchased for USD 1million a year back would now be valued USD 600,000. Though the perceived loss is notional, it exposes the investor to the vagaries of investing in emerging markets. The situation is exacerbated by strengthening dollar and rising interest rates, which generally portend capital outflows from emerging markets such as Turkey. Turkey could continue to face challenges unless policy credibility is restored and measures to boost market confidence are enacted.

This article is published in "Marmore Blog"

Tags:  Crisis, Economy, GCC, Turkey

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 Current rating: 0 (3 ratings)

Can Dubai’s 3D printed building vision be a template for addressing the housing crisis in the GCC?

Date : 13/06/2018
Author:  Marmore MENA Intelligence


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According to a recent study from the World Economic Forum, the Infrastructure and Urban development industry worldwide, have a stagnant productivity due to its failure to innovate as quickly as the other sectors. This has caused a negative effect on the economy, society and the environment. Despite robust economic growth and the affluent nature, the GCC region has been experiencing a housing shortage.
 
GCC housing crisis is spurred by macroeconomic drivers like urban population growth and the age structure. The working age population growth (worker’s spread increase the demand for new households and the willingness to consume better housing rises) in the GCC is significantly higher than the World and the MENA average.

Also, the steady increase in the urban population in the region (85% of the population lives in the city, expected to rise to 90% by 2050(PwC)) has hit harder on the lower and middle income households. Thus the pressure of housing affordability has been increasingly felt by the government and the population across the region.

In 2017, the shortage of affordable housing was 75,000 in Bahrain, 700,000 in Saudi Arabia. A recent Marmore study, GCC Affordable Housing, found that the demand for affordable housing is estimated to grow over the years in the region, with Saudi Arabia leading the set.
 
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Deloitte reports that significant affordable housing is required across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain. The GCC nations have planned new housing schemes to solve these shortages, Kuwait plans to build $14bn residential city with 35,000 units and Saudi Arabia to build 100,000 units over the next seven years in Riyadh(Deloitte).

The complexity inherent in the design and construction of buildings as GCC nations urbanise causes a serious challenge to have an affordable place to live. In addition shortage of qualified workers is one of the key reason for the industry’s stagnant productivity( World Economic Forum). Besides bringing changes in the housing policies, housing finance to solve the housing market shortage, technological advances like 3D printing can be well applied to meet these challenges.

3D printing is a technological breakthrough in the construction industry that changes the traditional way of construction process itself. 3D printing refers to the production of physical objects layer by layer by an automated computer-controlled machine. This can potentially increase the productivity across the sector as it involves more standardised elements with limited finishing work constructed on-site. 3D Printing can effectively reduce the cost (finance, materials and labour)(PwC) and increase the demand in the sector. Realizing the potential, UAE has launched the ‘Dubai 3D printing strategy’ that aims to promote Dubai as the leading hub of 3D printing technology by 2030.
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This initiative marks to bring positive economic returns and contribute to sustainable economic development. As a part of the initiative, Dubai operated the first 3D printed office in the world in 2016 (Constructed by Winsun). It also focuses on the construction of buildings for humanitarian causes, mobile homes, villas and so on.
Saudi Arabia has proposed to build 1.5 million housing units over five years using the 3D printing technology, to increase the number of available houses. Hence the GCC market for 3D printing is already lead by UAE and Saudi Arabia which is more likely to solve the cost-value gap.
For the emerging GCC economies, 3D printing technology could benefit the construction sector by number of ways
  • Mitigate the shortage of skilled construction workers
  • Improves the quality and accuracy of the end product
  • Affordable tailored designs
  • Sustainability
  • Increasing the speed of construction
  • Prefabrication based modular construction creates safer environment
These benefits of the 3D technology itself could solve the major challenges in the construction industry (Labour and Cost) paving ideal way to combat the housing crisis in the GCC region.

3D printing devices and materials are constantly evolving offering many benefits to the user. There are a number of start-ups offering 3D printing services by creating new, innovative projects (BCG and World Economic Forum).

MX3D- Amsterdam based start-up applies robotic 3D printing to the construction process, created the world’s first 3D printed steel bridge. The impact of the MX3D technology has significantly reduced the time and cost of building complex structures.

Winsun- Shanghai based company produces 3D printed houses at scale. Using 3D printed technology, construction units are pre-fabricated off site. This has increased the productivity and has caused significant cost savings. With Winsun approach, a standard house is built for about $30,000 and a new building can rise one storey per day.

Apis Cor- San Francisco based start-up prints entire house on-site rather than creating individual elements off-site and transporting them. The firm strongly believes that 3D printing is a solution to the housing crisis.

Realising such smart technology enabled development require considerable integration of government and the private sector. Adoption of 3D printing in the construction industry requires changes across legislations, funding, research and other public policy measures. Dubai has scaled up and created such incentives in five pillars to meet its 3D printing strategy namely infrastructure, legislative structure, funding, talent and market demand. Thus Dubai’s vision of technological application and creating a conducive market for 3D printing can increase productivity in the sector and aid to solve the housing crisis. This strategy could help the region and the world as it could be a prototype to better understand and take advantage of the 3D printing technology.

 

Tags:  3D, Affordable, Economy, GCC, Housing, Printing

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 Current rating: 0 (3 ratings)

Why are the breakeven oil prices coming down for GCC countries?

Date : 15/01/2018
Author:  Marmore MENA Intelligence




Fiscal breakeven oil prices (in USD/bbl)



Source: IMF

Fiscal break-even oil price is the minimum oil price needed to meet the spending commitments of oil-exporting country while balancing its budgets [BEP = {(Government Expenditure minus Non-oil revenue)/Oil quantity produced} + per barrel cost of production] (Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price). Prior to the collapse of oil prices, fiscal break-even oil prices were rising rapidly in GCC countries, reflecting the substantial increase in government spending by an annual average of 11 per cent in real terms in 2003-2014 (Gulf News). Moreover, the increasing government expenditures were largely due to rising salaries, wages and subsidies; expenses that were hard to control given the welfare economic model that is prevalent which subsequently made it difficult for the government to lower the breakeven oil prices. This led many analysts to think that lowering of BEP would be hard. However, the new realities due to low oil price environment had led to dramatic changes including curbing of subsidies and introduction of new non-oil revenue sources.

There are three main factors which drive the movement in fiscal GCC break-even oil prices. First is the value of hydrocarbon exports, second changes in non-hydrocarbon government revenues (accounted for 30 per cent of total government revenues in the past five years) and finally change in government spending. An increase in the value of oil exports, improving non-hydrocarbon revenues and a decline in spending will all contribute to lower fiscal breakeven oil prices.

Fiscal consolidation efforts by the government including restrained spending and growth in oil revenues (compared to the previous year) due to gradual rise in oil prices led to a decline in fiscal breakeven oil prices in 2017. Whereas in 2018, improving non-oil revenues is expected to be the main factor in reducing the breakeven prices. Unlike other oil-exporting countries, GCC currencies are pegged to the dollar, and thus most of the adjustment to lower oil prices has been on the fiscal side. Reduced government spending has so far been the most prevalent measure to lower break-even oil prices in the GCC countries after crude oil prices shed by more than half in the last two years.


Source: IMF
Additional adjustment in 2018 will focus on mobilization of non-hydrocarbon revenues, including higher fees and charges, introduction of value-added tax in early 2018 and privatization moves (IIF). As a first step, countries are introducing a VAT and other consumption taxes — for example on tobacco and sugar-sweetened beverages. Over time, governments may also consider deriving additional revenues from income and property taxation. These efforts are expected to raise revenues by 1-2 per cent of GDP, assuming a VAT rate of 5 per cent (IMF).

In Saudi Arabia, this would lead to much lower fiscal break-even oil prices, a decline of 24 percent from USD 96.6 to USD 73.1 per barrel of crude oil in 2017. Kuwait and Qatar will have break-evens below the oil price, more than enough to balance the budget in 2018. Overall, the weighted average fiscal breakeven oil price for the GCC has declined steadily since it peaked at USD 87/bbl in 2014 to USD 69/bbl in 2016 and USD 66/bbl in 2017.


Source: IMF, IIF

Tags:  Economy, GCC, Oil, Price

Ratings:
 Current rating: 2.5 (3 ratings)

Paris Climate Accord - Which side will the GCC pick?

Date : 05/12/2017
Author:  Marmore MENA Intelligence


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The Paris Accord, hailed as one of the biggest environmental treaties ever negotiated has now hit a roadblock as the U.S has stated its intention to withdraw from the agreement. In terms of size, the agreement supersedes the Kyoto protocol of 1997 signed by 41 nations that set emission targets for the participating nations. Despite countries meeting the expected target, it failed to make the desired impact as China and U.S, the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases were not bound by the agreement. Now with the introduction of the Paris Climate Accord, we analyze what it means for the GCC region and their stance on the deal in the aftermath of U.S pullout.

What is the Paris Climate Accord?
The Paris Agreement is a historic breakthrough for world nations with all countries penning down their compliance to the agreement in a bid to combat climate change, which remains as one of the key global issues. Signatory nations are required to take steps to ensure that the Earth’s temperature doesn’t rise above 2 degree Celsius. The highlight of the deal is that it gives freedom for the ratifying countries to independently decide on their emission targets and the course they wish to take to achieve them. This is in contrast to previous attempts that had common denominator judge individual nations without considering the economic, geographic and cultural differences between them.

The deal primarily hinges on voluntary commitments from signatory countries to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and aims to bestow economic incentives for developing nations in order to invest in cleaner technology as cost could be a key barrier for them in migrating from conventional sources of energy that are already in place. Despite being a landmark deal in many ways, it fell short in certain areas like having mandatory emission cuts for individual countries and did not enforce any mandatory donations from participating countries to the fund. But the shortcomings were expected as it took several years to shape up a deal that was palatable enough to be agreed upon by all countries worldwide.

Why did U.S pull out?
One of the notable talking points apart from the deal itself was U.S pullout from the agreement under the Trump administration. The U.S, which houses 4.3% of the world’s population, is responsible for about 15.5% of the world’s total CO2emissions and the decision to back-out from the agreement has drawn criticism from within and outside the country. Despite the criticism on several fronts, U.S justification towards the move was based on economic reasons as compliance to the agreement would have a direct impact on their manufacturing and fossil fuel industries. It was also stated by the U.S President that the agreement would cost America a sum of USD 3 trillion and deprive Americans of 6.5 million jobs in the industrial and manufacturing sector. This came amidst the support from several U.S and international oil companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and BP towards the Paris agreement stating that climate change would be a threat to their business.
 
Combating climate change in the GCC – Are they on course?
Due to heavy reliance of GCC economies on hydrocarbon revenues, combating climate change and pollution have remained a persistent challenge. Oil drilling, infrastructure development and rapid urbanization have been the primary causes for air pollution in the region. Qatar ranks 1st in the world in terms of CO2 emission per capita and contributes to 0.25% of the world’s total CO2 emissions while housing only 0.031% of the world’s population. Domestic energy consumption has also been higher in the GCC countries compared to others with Bahrain consuming more than 20,000 KWh of electricity per capita in 2015. Such high levels of consumption puts pressure on energy generation which in turn has negative effects on the environment.

paris-climate-accord-combating-climate-change-in-the-gcc.jpg

Source: IEA

However, GCC countries are being increasingly aware about the situation at hand and have taken measures to comply with global emission standards. They have incorporated climate change as a key focus area in their future vision plans and have set short and long term renewable energy targets. The move to diversify the source of revenue away from Oil due to the drop in prices is also expected to have environmental benefits as it would mean that emissions could be greatly reduced. Compared to 2014, all GCC countries have improved in terms of diversification of revenues with Qatar having the least share of hydrocarbon revenues as part of total revenues in 2017.

The UAE has been taking substantial steps in addressing the issue of climate change. In 2016, it expanded the role of its environment ministry to encompass climate change and renamed it to the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment thereby signaling it’s commitment towards the cause. As per the UAE Energy Strategy 2050, the UAE targets to 27% of its total energy through clean sources by 2021 and 50% by 2050. With ambitious projects such as the 1,177MW Noor Abu Dhabi Solar Plant and the 5,000MW Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park taking shape, UAE’s position towards climate change looks evident. Saudi Arabia as part of its Saudi Vision 2030 has been implementing measures to protect the environment which also aligns with its agenda of economic diversification. By 2040, Saudi Arabia has targeted to achieve 30% share of renewables as part of its total energy mix. Other GCC countries have also stepped foot on a similar path to achieve economic diversification in an environmentally sustainable manner.

Which side will GCC lean towards?
All GCC countries have penned down their compliance to the Paris Agreement and submitted their Intended Determined Contributions (INDCs) which outline their mitigation strategies to tackle climate change. However, it is to be seen how things would fare amidst the ongoing diplomatic crisis.

Remaining a part of the Paris Agreement also has economic benefits for GCC countries in addition to the inherent environmental benefits. Putting constraints on the usage of fossil fuels helps in cutting down the supply thereby triggering an increase in price. Due to the exit of U.S, EU-China is expected to take lead in the quest for climate change mitigation. So co-operation with EU-China, who are among the main trade partners of GCC countries, is expected to help them in future relations. Considering all above factors, there is more to gain from the Paris Agreement for GCC countries and it is expected to sway them towards compliance to the deal for the greater good.

Tags:  ACCORD, CLIMATE, ECONOMY, ENVIRONMENT, GCC, PARIS

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 Current rating: 0 (3 ratings)

Emerging startups in the Arab region - Can they make it big?

Date : 28/11/2017
Author:  Marmore MENA Intelligence

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Development of the start-up sector remains a key focus area for GCC economies, in their efforts to diversify away from Oil and Gas as they are expected to play a crucial role in creating new employment opportunities and helping the economy to flourish. UAE, the start-up hub of the region, has taken several measures such as passing of the bankruptcy law to improve its business environment and encourage SMEs in the country. Saudi Arabia’s PIF (Public Investment Fund) recently set up a USD 1bn fund to invest in Venture capitals and PE firms targeting the SME sector to provide them easier access to capital. While the start-up space in the Arab region is still at a very nascent stage, there have been several promising start-up stories emerging out of the GCC. Hence we take a look at the some of the top start-ups in the region, where they are from and their source of funding.

Arab Region's Top Start-ups
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Top 10 from GCCemerging-startups-in-the-arab-region-fig2.jpgSource: Forbes, Marmore research

UAE – Start-up hub of the GCC
 UAE has been the prime destination for budding start-ups in the Arab region offering a plethora of opportunities for prospective business owners. It is one of the most diversified economies in the GCC and home to some of the most highly valued start-ups in the region like Careem and Fetchr. Prime reasons to it are the measures taken by the government to improve the regulatory and policy frame work to encourage SMEs.
 
Currently, there are over 350,000 SMEs in the country which contribute to 40% of the GDP while employing 72% of the total working population (Bloovo). The proactive steps taken by the policymakers have helped UAE attain the 26th rank in the ‘Ease of doing business index’ for 2017 according to the World Bank and 35th rank in the Global Innovation Index. Also the presence of several startup accelerators and incubators in the country have helped entrepreneurs build on their ideas and get the support necessary to make their business a reality.
 
GCC start-ups – rising global investments
 Investments in MENA start-ups have been seeing an uptrend over the past few years. Funding activity in the first nine months of 2017 (169 deals) have already surpassed the levels seen in the whole of 2016 (164 deals) (MAGNiTT Q317 MENA funding report card). Excluding Souq and Careem, start-up funding in the MENA region for YTD 2017 is at USD 254mn and on course to surpass the 282mn raised in the previous year.
 
The global outreach of GCC startups have also been on the rise, drawing attention from investors worldwide. When profiling the investors of top GCC 10 start-ups from the Forbes list, it is observed that more than half of them are based outside the base country with the majority being Venture Capitals.

Investor Profile - Top 10 GCC Start-ups

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Source: Forbes, Crunchbase, Marmore Research
 

The trend is seen in exits as well with companies based outside the MENA region showing interest to acquire GCC start-ups. Some of the major acquisitions in the past few years include Media.net by China’s Miteno (USD 900mn), Souq by global e-commerce giant Amazon (USD 680mn) and Talabat by US based Rocket Internet (USD 170mn).
 
Fetchr – The next unicorn start-up from GCC?
 Fetchr is one of many emerging start-ups in the region which show immense promise. It is a Dubai based startup founded in 2012, which uses a smartphone’s location tracking capabilities in order to make product deliveries. The lack of clear addresses and postal codes for many areas in the UAE have made traditional deliveries a tedious process. Therefore, by allowing users to geo-locate the pick-up and drop-off points, Fetchr has come up with an innovative solution to make things simpler for package deliveries. Speed and accuracy of deliveries have been improved with the help of their patented technology in a region where getting things delivered could be quite complicated.
 
The logistics start-up has had a stellar year in 2017 as it raised USD 41mn worth funding in May, adding to its existing funds which will allow them to venture into other areas across the MENA region in addition to UAE, Bahrain, Egypt and Saudi Arabia where they are currently present. Fetchr was one of the first companies in the region to be backed by a top tier Silicon Valley Venture Capital as it raised USD 11mn in its Series A funding round backed by New Enterprise associates based out of the US.
 
Providing innovative solutions and understanding the local business landscape have helped Fetchr grow leaps and bounds while there is still scope for scaling up. Learnings from Fetchr’s case is that businesses need to view the pain points of the customer as opportunities and come up with solutions that will make their lives simpler.
 
Can they make it big?
 Although the business environment in the GCC is not the most conducive for start-ups at the moment, steps have been taken by policymakers to encourage the development of SMEs. Considering the need for GCC economies to move away from Oil, more such steps are expected from governments to aid the development of the start-up space. With the emergence of global investments, startup activity has considerably risen in the GCC and going by the trend witnessed in the last decade, GCC start-ups are on the right track and several unicorn start-ups can be expected from the region.


Tags:  Economy, GCC, SMEs, Startups

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