GCC Markets In Red, Falls 2.91% In June

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Markaz Research

GCC Markets In Red, Falls 2.91% In June 03 - Jul - 2012

GCC markets were down in June, losing 2.91% after a decrease of 6.1% in May. All GCC markets except Abu Dhabi were in the red. Saudi (TASI) was the largest loser shedding 3.80% for the month, followed by Qatar which lost 3.49%. Dubai has been the best performing market YTD, with a gain of 7.28%. Kuwait lost 0.60% in June while Bahrain and Oman both lost 1.13%.

Market Indicators

Indicators

M. Cap (USD Bn)

Last  Close

Monthly Return %

YTD %

2011%

P/E

TTM

Saudi (TASI)

347

6,710

-3.80

4.55

-3.07

12

Kuwait SE WT.INDEX

102

402

-0.60

-0.82

-16.89

15

Qatar(Doha SM)

93

8,123

-3.49

-7.47

1.12

8

Abu Dhabi (ADI)

75

2,448

0.27

1.89

-11.68

7

Dubai (DFMGI)

46

1,452

-1.33

7.28

-17.00

9

Bahrain (BAX)

17

1,127

-1.13

-1.48

-20.15

8

Oman(Muscat SM)

14

5,690

-1.13

-0.09

-15.69

12

S&P GCC Composite Index

234

93

-2.91

0.97

-8.47

11

Source: Excerpt from Markaz ‘Daily Morning Brief’



News in the region included: - A study done by Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) combines the latest IMF data, with the data from national authorities. It indicates that the GCC as a whole will record a year on year growth of 5.4% in 2012. - Fitch Ratings has affirmed SABIC long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘A+’, senior unsecured rating at ‘A+’ and Short-term IDR at ‘F1’. The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Stable. - According to the latest IMF article IV report on Kuwait, Government expenditure continued to increase in FY 2011/12 by 8%, reflecting a significant increase in the wage bill and capital expenditure (about 20%). The budget expansion was more than offset by the increase in oil revenue (35%). Kuwait real GDP growth has been forecasted to be 6.6% for 2012. - Saudi Arabia’s Jabal Omar Development Company signed a SAR 5bn (USD 1.33 bn) loan agreement with a group of local banks. - The latest DCCI study indicated that the Qatar will record a year on year growth of 9.4% in 2012. This growth projection is relatively very high when compared to real GDP growth projection of 6% as per IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report (April 2012). Volume decreased 36% MoM in the GCC and Value Traded also decreased 24% to USD 37.5 bn. This was on the back of 25% MoM drop in volumes and 38% decrease in Value Traded in May. Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 48% of GCC’s total volume traded, witnessed a 21% MoM drop in value traded.

 Value & Volume Traded Indicators

 

 

 

Volume Parameters

Value Parameters

% of Volume Traded

% of Value Traded

 

Volume Traded (Mn)

LTM Avg Volume Traded (Mn)

 

Value Traded (USD Mn)

LTM Avg

Value Traded (USD Mn)

 

 

MoM Deviation (%)

MoM Deviation (%)

 

48%

91%

Saudi Arabia

6,678

6,708

-20%

34,115

38,993

-21%

 

29%

3%

Kuwait

4,085

5,521

-55%

1,201

1,957

-49%

 

17%

2%

UAE

2,424

4,125

-34%

842

1,432

-41%

 

1%

3%

Qatar

144

184

-53%

1,027

1,620

-51%

 

2%

0%

Oman

336

248

37%

183

187

-7%

 

2%

0%

Bahrain

229

57

254%

116

29

274%

 

 

 

Total GCC

13,896

16,844

-36%

37,484

44,218

-24%

 

Source: Markaz Research

                           


Global Markets review

For the Global Markets, major action was held back till month end when on 29th June after 13½ hours of talk in Brussels leaders of the 17 euro nation’s relaxed conditions on emergency loans for Spanish banks and also a possible help for Italy. Markets worldwide reacted positively to the news and all major indices made gains during the month end. However the late surge shown by the Chinese indices was not sufficient to cover the month wide loss on concerns of a manufacturing slump. Frontier Markets ended on a slightly negative note for the month. CBOE VIX decreased 29% during the month signaling reduced volatility. The CRB commodity index remained flat at the end of the month.

Monthly Returns